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Theory of Change is a structured method to articulate how and why desired social or organizational outcomes are expected to occur. It links activities to short‑ and long‑term outcomes and makes assumptions explicit. Used for planning, monitoring and evaluation, it clarifies causal pathways and supports strategic decision making.
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Executable approach: can be applied and produces an outcome.
What organizes, connects, or makes decisions possible.
A theory of change describes how activities are expected to lead through assumptions and intermediate results to a desired impact.
The approach grew from impact planning and evaluation practice, which needed to make the assumed pathways of social and public initiatives traceable. Specialist bodies such as the Centre for Theory of Change systematized the representation.
State the long-term impact, work backward through prerequisites and intermediate results, expose assumptions, and select suitable indicators.
A change for target groups or in the system under study.
A condition supporting the assumed pathway of change.
An observable feature used to assess a result.
The pathway makes expectations and uncertainty visible and improves planning, learning, and evaluation.
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