Catalog
method#Governance#Product#Delivery

Theory of Change

A structured method to describe how interventions lead to intended outcomes. Focuses on causal pathways, assumptions and measurable indicators to improve planning and evaluation.

Theory of Change is a structured method to articulate how and why desired social or organizational outcomes are expected to occur.
Established
Medium

Classification

  • Medium
  • Organizational
  • Organizational
  • Intermediate

Technical context

Monitoring systems (e.g. internal dashboards)Reporting and fund management toolsProject planning and roadmap tools

Principles & goals

Explicit articulation of assumptionsCausality rather than lists of activitiesParticipation of relevant stakeholders
Discovery
Enterprise, Domain, Team

Use cases & scenarios

Compromises

  • Confirmation bias in assumptions
  • Insufficient data to validate pathways
  • Stakeholder conflicts over priorities
  • Define concrete, measurable intermediate goals
  • Adopt an iterative, evidence-based approach
  • Ensure documentation of assumptions and data sources

I/O & resources

  • Project goals, context analysis, existing evidence
  • Stakeholder interviews and workshops
  • Baseline data and suggested indicators
  • TOC map with causal pathways
  • List of explicit assumptions
  • Monitoring plan and set of indicators

Description

Theory of Change is a structured method to articulate how and why desired social or organizational outcomes are expected to occur. It links activities to short‑ and long‑term outcomes and makes assumptions explicit. Used for planning, monitoring and evaluation, it clarifies causal pathways and supports strategic decision making.

✔

  • Improved traceability of impact logic
  • Better basis for monitoring and evaluation
  • Clearer communication basis for stakeholders

✖

  • Can be time-consuming and resource intensive
  • Excessive complexity reduces usefulness
  • Uncertain assumptions can be misleading

  • Number of assumptions validated

    Number of assumptions confirmed by data or evaluation.

  • Achievement rate of short-term outcomes

    Percentage of defined short-term outcomes achieved.

  • Stakeholder alignment

    Degree of agreement among relevant stakeholders with the TOC.

NGO education initiative

TOC used causal analysis to link learning objectives, teacher training and community activities.

Product launch of a software tool

Product team modelled user journeys to business metrics and planned experiments for validation.

Government grant program

Funding agency created a TOC to standardize indicators and harmonize impact reporting.

1

Identify stakeholders and run a kick-off.

2

Jointly define goals and desired outcomes.

3

Iteratively develop causal paths, assumptions and indicators.

4

Create monitoring plan and assign responsibilities.

5

Plan regular review and adjustment of the TOC.

⚠️ Technical debt & bottlenecks

  • Incomplete documentation of assumptions
  • No versioning of TOC iterations
  • Inconsistent indicator definitions across projects
Unclear assumptionsLimited data availabilityStakeholder misalignment
  • Listing activities only without describing causal mechanisms
  • Not testing assumptions and treating them as facts
  • Never updating the TOC despite contrary evidence
  • Confusing goals and means within the causal path
  • Defining unrealistic indicators without data access
  • Not addressing stakeholder scepticism
Methodological understanding of impact modellingFacilitation and workshop skillsBasic monitoring & evaluation knowledge
Clarity about desired outcomesStakeholder engagement and legitimacyAvailability of valid indicators
  • • Time and resource constraints
  • • Privacy and access restrictions
  • • Organizational acceptance limits