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Structured method for developing plausible futures to improve strategic decisions under uncertainty.
Scenario planning is a structured method to explore possible futures and their implications. It combines qualitative scenario development, external driver analysis, and strategic assessment to address uncertainty and derive robust options. Teams run iterative workshops to build plausible narratives that improve strategic decisions and investment resilience.
Counts scenarios validated through stakeholder feedback.
Measures how often scenario results are used in strategy or budget decisions.
Assesses range of functions, externals and disciplines in workshops.
Shell has used scenario techniques for strategic orientation for decades.
Governments use scenarios to test policy pathways and risks.
Firms derived investment priorities from alternative futures.
Define objective, identify stakeholders and set project scope.
Collect and prioritize relevant drivers and data.
Select key dimensions and develop scenarios.
Craft narratives, analyze implications and derive options.
Integrate results into decisions and set up monitoring.