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Methodology for modelling complex dynamic systems using stocks, flows and feedback loops to analyse behavior over time.
System dynamics is a methodological approach for modeling complex, dynamic systems using stocks, flows and feedback loops. It supports understanding the causes of behavior over time and analysing policy or design options. Typical applications include strategic planning, policy analysis and organisational simulation. Models are iteratively calibrated and validated.
Difference between modelled projection and real measurements over defined periods.
Measures how strongly outcomes react to changes in key parameters.
Degree of acceptance and understandability of model results among stakeholders.
Classic example simulating urban growth and decay processes with feedbacks.
Teaching examples and models from John Sterman's courses on business dynamics.
Use case analysing inventories, lead times and feedbacks in logistics.
Define problem frame and identify stakeholders.
Design structural model with stocks, flows and feedbacks.
Estimate parameters, fit to historical data and calibrate.
Run scenarios, sensitivity analyses and validation.